The biggest night in movies is upon us.
The 98th Academy Awards will air this Sunday, March 15, in Hollywood, honoring the best of the best in motion pictures. Widely considered to be the highest and most prestigious honor in the film industry, the awards are given for artistic and technical merit, all while some of the most talked-about names in Tinseltown rub elbows with each other.
“It’s surprising. There are so many good movies that are up for awards,” said New York Times chief film critic Manohla Dargis on The Times’ podcast “The Daily” this past weekend. “The movie industry may be completely a mess, but the movies are there and they’re wonderful.”
Here, we’re putting in our two cents on which wonderful movies will claim the top prizes at Sunday’s award show hosted by Conan O’Brien and set to air on ABC at 7 p.m. (streamed on Hulu). And hey, if you’re looking to celebrate Oscar night in style, don your best black tie outfit and head to Sag Harbor Cinema (90 Main St., 631-725-0010) for a special live viewing party beginning with red carpet coverage at 5:30 p.m. Free to attend and details are here.
Here are our predictions:
Best Picture
For months now, it’s been a marathon of a race to see which two of last year’s biggest films — director Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” a tale of vampires in the Jim Crow South, and Paul Thomas Anderson’s black comedy meets action-thriller epic “One Battle After Another” — would claim the night’s top prize. While we love a stylish, southern-inspired, 1930s-era horror flick as much as the next person (and the film now holds the record for most noms in history with 16), the plot concerning revolutionaries going up against both corrupt military officials and sick, sociopathic people in positions of power in ‘One Battle’ just so accurately hits close to home, given our present-day political and social climate, that it can’t be ignored.
Will Win: “One Battle After Another”; Should Win: “One Battle After Another”
Best Director
Now, this one isn’t as easy to pin down. While “One Battle After Another” can and should be named the winner, it doesn’t, despite tradition, necessarily mean its director will, too. One of the preeminent filmmakers of his generation, Paul Thomas Anderson is more-than deserving of claiming his first Oscar glory (which is almost a sin in and of itself, since he probably should have decades ago for “Boogie Nights” or “Magnolia” or “There Will Be Blood”) but he’ll end up winning for Best Adapted Screenplay and the Academy will name the equally talented but not nearly as celebrated Ryan Coogler as Best Director for “Sinners,” making him the first Black director to be given the prize.
Will Win: Ryan Coogler, “Sinners” ; Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Best Actress
The only almost sure-thing we’re seeing in the major categories for this year’s awards ceremony is Irish actress Jessie Buckley claiming gold for her role in “Hamnet” for her richly emotional portrayal of William Shakespeare’s wife. Her classic turn as the woman behind the man is raw and heartbreaking and the stuff Oscar-winning roles are typically (and historically) made of. The only foreseeable bump in the road that we think could keep Buckley from being named Best Actress of the year is if the Academy decides to award usually funny woman Rose Byrne’s performance as an extra anxious, equally struggling mother in “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” instead.
Will Win: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” ; Should Win: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
Best Actor
Unusually, this category is one of the most exciting of all this year, as it’s seen a lot of changes as to who will win over the past few months. Initially, it was Timothée Chalamet’s to lose, as he was the category’s dominant front-runner early on for his role as whiny yet compelling 1950s table tennis player Marty Mauser in “Marty Supreme.” However, it could be argued the wheels are falling off on Chalamet’s award season campaign and there’s a very good chance he may be upset by Michael B. Jordan, who’s still riding high on the wave of recent accolades, including the Actor’s Award, for his dual role as gangster twin brothers Smoke and Stack in “Sinners.” An almost unrecognizable Ethan Hawke in “Blue Moon” is probably the one that truly deserves the win (as he’s gone 0 for 4, Oscar wise) for his part as Lorenz Hart, the far-less famous partner of Broadway songwriting team Rodgers (as in Richard Rodgers) and Hart, and the man responsible for writing the song the movie is named after. Wagner Moura’s knockout performance in “The Secret Agent” is the sleeper no one suspects. The always excellent Leonardo DiCaprio in “One Battle After Another” is an unfortunate stretch, especially since there’s a good chance at least one of his co-stars in the supporting categories will win.
Will Win: Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners” ; Should Win: Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
Best Supporting Actress
“A nice thing about the Best Supporting Actress category this year is that all five women are bona fide supporting players in their respective movies, who sweep in, steal the show, then bounce,” writes Adam White for The Independent. With that said, we’ve got two words for you: Teyana Taylor. While her part as revolutionary anti-hero Perfidia Beverly Hills in “One Battle After Another” couldn’t be counted on for much, you cant count on Taylor’s name being called winner in this category on Sunday. The only way this isn’t happening is if the Academy decides to give it to Amy Madigan for “Weapons,” but that’s a long shot.
Will Win: Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another” ; Should Win: Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”
Best Supporting Actor
Much like its leading man counterpart, the supporting actor category doesn’t have a clear-cut winner. Sean Penn’s twisted turn as despicable villain Colonel Steven J. Lockjaw in “One Battle After Another” is beyond impressive, but Penn already has two statues, so hopefully, the Academy will want to spread the wealth around a little. Two worthy candidates are found in Delroy Lindo as drunken bluesman Delta Slim in “Sinners” and Stellan Skarsgård’s for his role as a father navigating his life (and trying to mend an estranged relationship with his daughter) in Swedish film “Sentimental Value.” And although we think the latter is long overdue for a win, we wouldn’t be bummed if Penn’s co-star Benicio de Toro was named as the victor, as his role as Sergio St. Carlos — karate sensei and a leader of the undocumented community in the fictional sanctuary city Baktan Cross — provides a certain wholesome quality not easily found elsewhere in the film.
Will Win: Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another” ; Should Win: Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value,” OR Benicio del Toro, “One Battle After Another.”
